Pharmaceutical companies' predictions about COVID-19 vaccines haven't come true
Video above: Officials concerned over distribution of potential coronavirus vaccine
Over the past six months, pharmaceutical companies have made various predictions about their COVID-19 vaccine timelines that have turned out not to be true.
In one recent example,바카라 게임 웹사이트Pfizer바카라 게임 웹사이트has said for weeks바카라 게임 웹사이트it바카라 게임 웹사이트would know by the end of October whether its vaccine works. But Tuesday on an investor call, the company's CEO essentially ruled that out.
While at times Pfizer and other companies have couched their statements, other times they have been more definitive about their projections.
Scientists say that should guide us as we move closer to having a vaccine: Don't believe everything you hear because testing and manufacturing vaccines is notoriously unpredictable.
"Unexpected things happen all the time in vaccine development," said Dr. Nelson Michael,바카라 게임 웹사이트an Army vaccine specialist who바카라 게임 웹사이트has worked on more than 20 vaccine clinical trials.바카라 게임 웹사이트"There are tons of twists and turns,바카라 게임 웹사이트and it's important to understand that."
While health officials have also made forward-looking statements, they've typically been more vague than pharmaceutical companies.
Last week,바카라 게임 웹사이트National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins the National Press Club he바카라 게임 웹사이트remains "cautiously바카라 게임 웹사이트optimistic" that the United States could have a COVID-19 vaccine authorized by the end of the year, but warned "it might take longer."
Dr. Paul Offit, a member of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration vaccine advisory committee, said pharmaceutical companies would be wise to stop making forecasts about their timelines.
"Companies should stop making predictions, because nature is very humbling," Offit said.
Claim of a 'near바카라 게임 웹사이트perfect' vaccine바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트
In September, Ugur Sahin, CEO of바카라 게임 웹사이트BioNTech, which is바카라 게임 웹사이트working with Pfizer on바카라 게임 웹사이트its coronavirus vaccine,바카라 게임 웹사이트told CNN that his company's vaccine is "near perfect."
Scientists shuddered at the thought of describing a vaccine as "near perfect" when it hasn't yet been fully studied in large-scale trials. The바카라 게임 웹사이트Pfizer바카라 게임 웹사이트vaccine, as well as three others, are still in바카라 게임 웹사이트Phase 3바카라 게임 웹사이트clinical trials in the United States, and no one knows if they work at all, let alone바카라 게임 웹사이트to near perfection.
Vaccines by Pfizer and another pharmaceutical company,바카라 게임 웹사이트Moderna, utilize바카라 게임 웹사이트a new kind of technology바카라 게임 웹사이트in바카라 게임 웹사이트their COVID-19 vaccines.
Offit said that alone is reason for caution.
"This virus has been around for less than a year, and it causes a variety of clinical findings that we never would have predicted, and now we're going to counter it with a vaccine that has no commercial experience? How about a little humility here?" said Offit, a member of the FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee.
According to a바카라 게임 웹사이트BioNTech바카라 게임 웹사이트statement sent to CNN, Sahin's comment was "based on preliminary antibody and T cell responses and바카라 게임 웹사이트a바카라 게임 웹사이트favorable safety profile observed in the study so far. He also바카라 게임 웹사이트noted that there is a need to wait for the efficacy data which is not바카라 게임 웹사이트available yet."
Pfizer's CEO has made predictions about바카라 게임 웹사이트when it will be clear if a vaccine works or not.
On Sept. 8, Albert바카라 게임 웹사이트Bourla told the "바카라 게임 웹사이트Today" show "we will have an answer by the end of October" whether the vaccine works, adding that "our model, our base case, predicts that we will have an answer in, by the end of October. Of course, this is only a prediction."
On Oct. 16, Bourla made a similar comment바카라 게임 웹사이트in an on his company's website, stating that "we may know whether or not our vaccine is effective바카라 게임 웹사이트by the end of October."
Video: Fauci: 바카라 게임 웹사이트You cannot abandon public health measures바카라 게임 웹사이트 even with COVID-19 vaccine
But on the investor call Tuesday바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트 just five days before the end of the month 바카라 게임 웹사이트 Bourla said the company hasn't seen its vaccine data yet. Pfizer's first opportunity to see that data will be when 32 people in its trial become sick with COVID-19, and Bourla told investors that this has not yet happened.
Reaching those 32 coronavirus cases will still not give the company the data it needs. An independent panel of experts will need to analyze those cases, and that can take at least a week, Bourla told investors. That means the data couldn't come in October, as Bourla had predicted.
"I don't believe our바카라 게임 웹사이트CEO바카라 게임 웹사이트or we have said that the world should definitely expect an announcement at the end of the month. Rather, it's that there was potential that we would know about efficacy by the end of the month. Nothing has changed," according to a company spokesperson.
Predictions바카라 게임 웹사이트from the University of Oxford for September results바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트
Pfizer isn't the only company that's made predictions that likely will not or did not come true.
In April, Sarah Gilbert, an Oxford researcher, told in the UK that she was바카라 게임 웹사이트"80% confident" the vaccine being developed by her team would work, even though at that point Oxford had not even started their Phase 3 clinical .
In May,바카라 게임 웹사이트CNN asked Oxford researcher Dr.바카라 게임 웹사이트Adrian Hill when the university's trial would end.
"My guess is July would be good. August more likely. Might be September," he said.바카라 게임 웹사이트"We're aiming for September but hoping to finish before that."
September came and went. Even now,바카라 게임 웹사이트Oxford's Phase 3 trial is still underway.
"We have seen with this pandemic that the spread and transmission rates have fluctuated making them challenging to predict, and important measures to control cases, such as the lockdown by the UK Government, have slowed the transmission rate," an바카라 게임 웹사이트Oxford spokesperson바카라 게임 웹사이트wrote in an email to CNN. "We have consistently maintained that if transmission remained high, we may get enough data in a couple of months to see if the vaccine works, but if transmission levels drop, this process could take longer."
Viruses and vaccines are unpredictable바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트바카라 게임 웹사이트
The spread of a virus is unpredictable, and vaccine experts say that's exactly why pharmaceutical companies should avoid making predictions.
In the Phase 3 trials,바카라 게임 웹사이트pharmaceutical companies바카라 게임 웹사이트vaccinate study participants and then see if they become infected바카라 게임 웹사이트in the바카라 게임 웹사이트course of바카라 게임 웹사이트their daily lives.바카라 게임 웹사이트When rates바카라 게임 웹사이트of the virus바카라 게임 웹사이트go down,바카라 게임 웹사이트fewer participants will become infected, which slows down the trial.
Even after바카라 게임 웹사이트the바카라 게임 웹사이트clinical trials are completed, there can be problems with manufacturing.바카라 게임 웹사이트That's been true for many vaccines and바카라 게임 웹사이트could be true of the Covid-19 vaccines as well.
"People don't think about manufacturing,바카라 게임 웹사이트but manufacturing has killed a lot of products," said바카라 게임 웹사이트Norman Baylor, former director of the FDA's Office of Vaccines Research바카라 게임 웹사이트and바카라 게임 웹사이트Review.
Drugs바카라 게임 웹사이트typically use chemicals,바카라 게임 웹사이트but vaccines deal with growing living material, which doesn't always go as planned.
"It's wilder and crazier when you're involving living systems," Baylor said. "Manufacturing a vaccine is a lot like cooking.바카라 게임 웹사이트A recipe may work fine one day but not the next."
That's why vaccine experts say the best laid plans can go askew.
"The best-case scenario never happens," said Michael,바카라 게임 웹사이트the바카라 게임 웹사이트director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. "Bumps and warts happen in vaccine development."