Why tracking COVID-19 case rates still matters

WE ARE ENTERING INTO YEAR THREE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMICND A DOCTORS THE JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH SAY THERES I REASON TO BE HOPEFUL INFECTION RATES SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE AND PREDICTABLE AND TUGHOH THERE WILL BE MORE SURGES FUTURE SURGES. OR UNLIKELY TO CAUSE AS MUCH SEVERE DISEASE AS WE바카라 게임 웹사이트�VE SNEE THESE PAST TWO YEARS DUE TO THE POPULATION IMMUNITY THAT WE NOW HAVE AND IMPORTANT TOOLS SUCH AS VACCINES BOOSTERS AND ANTIVIRALS. A LOT OF THINGS WILL AFFECT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PANDEMIC AND HOW QUICKLY IT GETS TO ENDEMIC STATUS. ONE OF THEM IS THE WAR IN UKRAINE LIKELY TO LEAD TO INCREASED COVID TRANSMISSION. BEFORE THE INVASNIO OF UKRAINE, THEY WERE EXPERIENCING AN OMNICRON SURGE IN CASES WHIT THE HIGHEST RATE OF CORONAVIRUS UKRAINE HAD SEEN OCCURRING IN THE MONTH RIGHTEF BORE THE INVASION. ONLY A THIRD OF UKRAINIANSRE A VACCINATED. SO THE POPULATION IS STILL HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE MANY UKRAINIANS ARE FLEEING TO OTHER COUNTRIES AND LIVING IN REFUGEE CAMPS WHICH DR. DESOUSA SAYS WITH CLOSE LIVING QUARTERS ARE BREEDING GRODSUN FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES, LIKE COVID ALL OF THIS AS THI WSEEK. THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS THEY ARE OUT OF FUNDING FOR COVID TESTING AND VACCINES UNLESS CONGRESS APPROVES MORE DR. ANNA DURBIN SA TYSHAT WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON OUR CONTROL OF A PANDEMIC I THINK WITHOUT THAT FUNDING WHILE WE바카라 게임 웹사이트�RE STILL I IN THE MIDST OF OMICRON AND COVID AND WE바카라 게임 웹사이트�RE NOT ENTIRELY BACK TO NORMAL YET. THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT WE COULD VEHA ANOERTH SURGE LACK OF FUNDING TO ADDRESS THAT COULD REALLY ADVERSE ADVERSELY AFFECT OUR RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC, BUT THERE바카라 게임 웹사이트�S GOOD NEWSN OHE T HORIZON FOR YOUNG KIDS BOTH VISOR AND MODERNA PLANT TO SUBMIT THEIR VACCINES FOR KIDS UNDER FIVE TO THE FDA FOR EMERGENCY USE AUTH. ORSECTION NEXT MONTH IF IT IS APPROVED. WE바카라 게임 웹사이트�LL HAVE AN EUA CERTAINLY BY THE END OF APRIL IF NOT A BIT EARLIER FOR THE PFIZER VACCINE. EXPERTS SAY WE ALSO NEED TO START PREPARING FOR THE NEXT PANDEMIC. SO WE'R바카라 게임 웹사이트� MORE PREPARED THAN WE WERE WHEN COVID

COVID-19 cases in the United States have fallen more than 95% from their peak in January, and on Friday, Hawaii became the last state to roll back its indoor mask mandate. Testing has slowed, and states are scaling back on reporting surveillance data, too.But experts say that tracking new COVID-19 cases is still important 바카라 게임 웹사이트� even if it is an imperfect measure."Dating back to the beginning of the pandemic, we've always known that case numbers were being undercounted. It was never quite clear how much," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.With at-home tests more widely available and vaccination helping prevent severe disease, people might be skipping laboratory-confirmed PCR tests. Before, limited availability of testing probably created similar gaps in reporting. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that even before omicron, only 1 in 4 cases was officially reported."With an infection that can rapidly spread, where we are today in the data isn't necessarily going to be reflective of how bad it's going to be tomorrow or the day after," said Michael LeVasseur, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University's School of Public Health. "There could be many, many more people who are infectious that you can encounter that you're not seeing in the data."But even as they fall, daily case counts provide a useful benchmark in a more comprehensive assessment of the situation that calls for a look across multiple trends."From a public health perspective, it's always important to look at more than one data source. And when those data sources together are pointing in the same direction, you can have more confidence," said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists.Hospitalizations and deaths have consistently been the most reliable COVID-19 metrics, experts say."Those two are bookends that don't really change much relative to the availability of testing," Osterholm said.Early indicators of transmission have more room for improvement. Case rates are best understood in tandem with test positivity rates. Visits to emergency room departments and virus levels in wastewater can help, too.Despite the dramatic improvement over the past two months, coronavirus transmission is still high."Even though things are going down, boy is there a lot of COVID out there," Hamilton said.Once driven solely by transmission levels, the CDC adjusted its guidelines for indoor masking last month to rely on hospitalization metrics more heavily than cases.Though the CDC's newer "Community Levels" map is mostly green, the original "Community Transmission" map still has lots of red. As of Thursday, less than 2% of U.S. counties have a "high community level," but more than a third of counties still had "high" or "substantial" transmission over the past week.Experts admit that balancing all of these metrics is a complicated risk assessment for individuals to make day to day and that public messaging to help has missed the mark."I don't think we have hit our sweet spot for how we're helping communicate that to people," Hamilton said."It's hard, because I think it's not only important to look at a metric which says, 'Yes, there's virus out there.' It's also important to apply that to your own individual risk level."And this individual risk assessment might get harder in the days and weeks to come if signals become mixed. In the U.K., for example, the BA.2 subvariant of omicron led to a rise in cases that has been much sharper than the rise in hospitalizations or deaths.But an individual approach shouldn't necessarily change, whether there are 500 new cases per day or 50,000 cases per day, LeVasseur said."I can take a look at trends and do a back of the envelope guess at how I'm feeling about risk. But it doesn't stop me from wearing a mask. It doesn't stop me from having conversations with the people that I'm going to be with about our approach," he said.

But experts say that tracking new COVID-19 cases is still important 바카라 게임 웹사이트� even if it is an imperfect measure.

"Dating back to the beginning of the pandemic, we've always known that case numbers were being undercounted. It was never quite clear how much," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

With at-home tests more widely available and vaccination helping prevent severe disease, people might be skipping laboratory-confirmed PCR tests. Before, limited availability of testing probably created similar gaps in reporting. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that even before omicron, only 1 in 4 cases was officially reported.

"With an infection that can rapidly spread, where we are today in the data isn't necessarily going to be reflective of how bad it's going to be tomorrow or the day after," said Michael LeVasseur, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Drexel University's School of Public Health. "There could be many, many more people who are infectious that you can encounter that you're not seeing in the data."

But even as they fall, daily case counts provide a useful benchmark in a more comprehensive assessment of the situation that calls for a look across multiple trends.

"From a public health perspective, it's always important to look at more than one data source. And when those data sources together are pointing in the same direction, you can have more confidence," said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists.

Hospitalizations and deaths have consistently been the most reliable COVID-19 metrics, experts say.

"Those two are bookends that don't really change much relative to the availability of testing," Osterholm said.

Early indicators of transmission have more room for improvement. Case rates are best understood in tandem with test positivity rates. Visits to emergency room departments and virus levels in wastewater can help, too.

Despite the dramatic improvement over the past two months, coronavirus transmission is still high.

"Even though things are going down, boy is there a lot of COVID out there," Hamilton said.

Once driven solely by transmission levels, the CDC adjusted its guidelines for indoor masking last month to rely on hospitalization metrics more heavily than cases.

Though the CDC's newer "" map is mostly green, the original "" map still has lots of red. As of Thursday, less than 2% of U.S. counties have a "high community level," but more than a third of counties still had "high" or "substantial" transmission over the past week.

Experts admit that balancing all of these metrics is a complicated risk assessment for individuals to make day to day and that public messaging to help has missed the mark.

"I don't think we have hit our sweet spot for how we're helping communicate that to people," Hamilton said.

"It's hard, because I think it's not only important to look at a metric which says, 'Yes, there's virus out there.' It's also important to apply that to your own individual risk level."

And this individual risk assessment might get harder in the days and weeks to come if signals become mixed. In the U.K., for example, the BA.2 subvariant of omicron led to a rise in cases that has been much sharper than the rise in hospitalizations or deaths.

But an individual approach shouldn't necessarily change, whether there are 500 new cases per day or 50,000 cases per day, LeVasseur said.

"I can take a look at trends and do a back of the envelope guess at how I'm feeling about risk. But it doesn't stop me from wearing a mask. It doesn't stop me from having conversations with the people that I'm going to be with about our approach," he said.

Why tracking COVID-19 case rates still matters

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