Why a government default could be worse than a government shutdown
All the hand-wringing over a if Congress doesn't increase the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling has conjured up images of past government shutdowns. In shutdowns, "essential바카라 게임 웹사이트 workers 바카라 게임 웹사이트 showed up, but most federal employees stayed home. Work piled up in offices, and litter piled up in untended national parks.
However, there's a big difference between a government shutdown and a default on the nation's debts.
America very well knows what happens in a shutdown 바카라 게임 웹사이트 it's had in the past 30 years. There's a lot more uncertainty about a default, which could well have more wide-ranging and devastating impacts, at home and around the world. There's never been a default, and negotiators are trying to find a way to avoid one now.
A look at what is known 바카라 게임 웹사이트 and not 바카라 게임 웹사이트 about both:
Government shutdown
A shutdown occurs when Congress doesn't approve funding legislation so that the government can keep spending money to remain open.
When Congress hasn바카라 게임 웹사이트t authorized or extended government funding, there is no authority to spend money. Essential work continues 바카라 게임 웹사이트 the military remains on guard 바카라 게임 웹사이트 but most federal workers are sent home, and activities cease until Congress acts.
It's harmful to the economy, and can disrupt many lives, but it's is far from catastrophic.
The U.S. has experienced four true government shutdowns where operations were impacted by more than one business day, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That usually includes limitations on government services 바카라 게임 웹사이트 like park maintenance and benefit checks 바카라 게임 웹사이트 and non-essential federal employees are sent home.
바카라 게임 웹사이트We know what a government shutdown looks like,바카라 게임 웹사이트 said Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the nonprofit Bipartisan Policy Center. 바카라 게임 웹사이트And everyone knows on which date that will occur."
The White House keeps a of agency contingency plans in the event of a government shutdown. The country narrowly avoided one last December.
Government default
A default would occur if the government exceeds its legal borrowing limit and can no longer pay all its creditors or pay for existing programs.
The uncertainty about a default starts with when it actually occurs and in what order the government would pay its bills with whatever money it still has coming in.
A default 바카라 게임 웹사이트would be a very different situation" from a shutdown, said Akabas. "We don바카라 게임 웹사이트t know what the effects would look like because it's never happened in the history of our country.바카라 게임 웹사이트
He added that there is "massive uncertainty바카라 게임 웹사이트 about when the U.S. would reach its X-date, the moment when it no longer can borrow money to pay bills.
Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute focusing on tax issues, said 바카라 게임 웹사이트there is no blueprint for how the government can manage a debt limit default,바카라 게임 웹사이트 and much of it would come down to how Treasury would pay or put off paying its bills.
, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and countless economists have warned darkly about the 바카라 게임 웹사이트catastrophic바카라 게임 웹사이트 impacts of a default.
Yellen this week said it would , and leave millions of families who rely on federal government payments to "likely go unpaid,바카라 게임 웹사이트 including Social Security beneficiaries, veterans and military families.
바카라 게임 웹사이트A default could cause widespread suffering as Americans lose the income that they need to get by,바카라 게임 웹사이트 she said. Disruptions to federal government operations would impact 바카라 게임 웹사이트air traffic control and law enforcement, border security and national defense, and food safety."
Who gets paid 바카라 게임 웹사이트 and who doesn't
Wendy Edelberg, an economist at the Brookings Institution, said that in the event of a default 바카라 게임 웹사이트it is widely assumed that Treasury would figure out how to make principle and interest payments until they had money to pay all non-interest payments.바카라 게임 웹사이트
That means many programs could be up in the air until the U.S. raised enough money to pay for them, while debt holders like China would receive payments 바카라 게임 웹사이트 in a scheme called 바카라 게임 웹사이트debt payment prioritization.바카라 게임 웹사이트
So while Social Security recipients, for instance, continued to receive automated payments and scheduled checks during a shutdown, Akabas said, it바카라 게임 웹사이트s not so clear that they would get paid in a default.
바카라 게임 웹사이트Maybe workers will come into work,바카라 게임 웹사이트 maybe they won바카라 게임 웹사이트t, Riedl said. 바카라 게임 웹사이트There is an assumption that federal workers would come into work and get paid eventually.바카라 게임 웹사이트
바카라 게임 웹사이트There바카라 게임 웹사이트s no specific blueprint. It comes down to whether their agency gets funding,바카라 게임 웹사이트 he said. 바카라 게임 웹사이트If we do hit the debt limit, there바카라 게임 웹사이트s going to be a lot of new court cases on who determines who gets paid and how.바카라 게임 웹사이트
Where negotiations stand
Democratic and Republican leaders have said that a default will not occur, despite their standoff on raising the debt limit.
Before leaving Wednesday for a Group of Seven summit meeting in Japan, Biden said he was 바카라 게임 웹사이트confident바카라 게임 웹사이트 that the U.S. will be able to raise the debt ceiling.
Republicans are asking for steep spending cuts before they agree to raise the debt limit, and most recently the president has shown a willingness to discuss possible budget changes.
Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have named top negotiators to discuss the contours of a deal.