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Asteroid 2024 YR4바카라 게임 웹사이트s chances of colliding with Earth drop near zero

Asteroid 2024 YR4바카라 게임 웹사이트s chances of colliding with Earth drop near zero
In late December of 2024, um, *** NASA funded near Earth asteroid survey, the one that, you know, I operate called Atlas, uh, discovered an asteroid that as it came by the Earth, uh, this time around, we realized it has an orbit that comes back every 4 years and in 2032, there's *** statistical chance that this asteroid might hit the Earth and the current probability of that is about 2%. The orbit, um. Has *** slightly greater chance of hitting the Earth than we first thought when it was discovered and so that 1% around the time of discovery has crept up to 2% and further observations have not been able to reduce that down to zero to where we can say there's no chance of impact in 2032. This is *** rock comparable to the asteroid that hit in Tunguska in Russia in the early 1900s. So if it were to happen overpopulated area, it could do *** lot of destruction. The most likely outcome is that it will not hit and so nobody's panicking yet. Right now we're collecting data, um, collecting ideas about what we would do about this thing as we learn more about it. Nobody's hitting the panic button yet.
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Asteroid 2024 YR4바카라 게임 웹사이트s chances of colliding with Earth drop near zero
Asteroid 2024 YR4, deemed the riskiest asteroid on record last week, now has nearly a zero percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency.NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, while the ESA has a similar risk assessment of 0.002%.That바카라 게임 웹사이트s a 1 in 59,000 possibility of impact, meaning there is a 99.9983% chance that the asteroid will safely zip by Earth in seven years, according to NASA. The agency also shared that the new data suggested that the asteroid had a 1.7% chance of hitting the moon, but those slight odds of impact do not pose a risk to Earth.바카라 게임 웹사이트When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032,바카라 게임 웹사이트 the agency shared on Monday.바카라 게임 웹사이트As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory바카라 게임 웹사이트s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.바카라 게임 웹사이트Over the weekend, the asteroid also dropped to a ranking of 0 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool for categorizing potential collisions of space objects with Earth. The ranking indicates 바카라 게임 웹사이트the likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.바카라 게임 웹사이트Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected by telescopes on December 27, 2024, is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, comparable to a large building, and could cause local devastation if it were to collide with our planet.The quick de-escalation of the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s risk assessment is thanks to 바카라 게임 웹사이트unsung, meticulous work by astronomers바카라 게임 웹사이트 who conducted a steady stream of follow-up observations of the space rock using telescopes across the globe, said Richard Binzel, inventor of the Torino Scale. Binzel is a professor of planetary sciences, joint professor of aerospace engineering and MacVicar Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.바카라 게임 웹사이트I바카라 게임 웹사이트m pleasantly surprised that we could reduce the probability numbers so quickly,바카라 게임 웹사이트 Binzel said. 바카라 게임 웹사이트It would not have done anyone any good to have this probability hang around for a long time because it was going to go to zero. The reason I say it was going to go to zero is at the end of the day, the probability is either zero and it misses you, or it바카라 게임 웹사이트s one and it hits you. Any number in between is just the space of your uncertainty. We didn바카라 게임 웹사이트t want us to have to sit in that time and space of uncertainty for months and months.바카라 게임 웹사이트From record-breaking to nonthreateningEarly last week, 2024 YR4 briefly broke a record once reached by the asteroid Apophis after it was first spotted in 2004.At its peak threat level, 2024 YR4 reached a 3 on the Torino Scale and had an estimated 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA. The ESA바카라 게임 웹사이트s observations reached a peak of a 2.8% risk.The narrow difference was due to the two agencies바카라 게임 웹사이트 use of different tools for determining the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s orbit and modeling its potential impact. But both percentages rose above the 2.7% chance of collision once associated with Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be spotted within the past two decades.However, as with Apophis, astronomers expected the risk for 2024 YR4 to spike and then fall to zero as they obtained more observational data to reduce uncertainties about the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s path.Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with a chance of hitting our planet and reaching a 4 out of 10 on the Torino Scale. The rating meant that the asteroid merited astronomers바카라 게임 웹사이트 attention and tracking. Apophis reached a 4 because it was a larger object capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 garnered a 3 because it would cause local damage, Binzel said.But like 2024 YR4, Apophis also quickly dropped from a 4 to a 0 on the Torino Scale after astronomers spotted archival observations of the asteroid that more precisely clarified its orbit. While Apophis is still set to make a close flyby of Earth in 2029 that will be studied by multiple spacecraft, it poses no risk to Earth within this century.The biggest obstacle astronomers face when trying to determine the risk posed by newly discovered asteroids is calculating the unknowns. In the case of 2024 YR4, that includes the space rock바카라 게임 웹사이트s size as well as its orbit.Observations taken during the dark skies necessary for ground-based telescopes to track faint, small asteroids after February바카라 게임 웹사이트s full moon, which shone brightly in the night sky on February 12, helped astronomers quickly decrease the risk assessment for 2024 YR4.Key telescopes have included the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the Subaru Telescope and Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, all located in the Hawaiian Islands, as well as New Mexico바카라 게임 웹사이트s Magdalena Ridge Observatory, the Gemini South Observatory in the Chilean Andes, Arizona바카라 게임 웹사이트s Lowell Discovery Telescope and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands.바카라 게임 웹사이트The atmosphere above Maunakea tends to be very stable, and it enables telescopes to produce very sharp images, sharper than most other observatory locations,바카라 게임 웹사이트 said David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii바카라 게임 웹사이트s Institute for Astronomy, in a statement.The likelihood of 2024 YR4바카라 게임 웹사이트s impact has dropped just in time. Astronomers were concerned because the space rock바카라 게임 웹사이트s trajectory, carrying it away from Earth in a straight line, meant the asteroid would be out of reach of ground-based telescopes in April and wouldn바카라 게임 웹사이트t reappear until June 2028.However, astronomers plan to remain vigilant in observing the space rock to ensure that 2024 YR4 poses no risk, and the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to observe the asteroid in early March to pin down more details about its orbit and exact size.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, deemed the riskiest asteroid on record last week, now has nearly a zero percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to and the .

NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, while the ESA has a similar risk assessment of 0.002%.

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That바카라 게임 웹사이트s a 1 in 59,000 possibility of impact, meaning there is a 99.9983% chance that the asteroid will safely zip by Earth in seven years, according to . The agency also shared that the new data suggested that the asteroid had a , but those slight odds of impact do not pose a risk to Earth.

바카라 게임 웹사이트When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032,바카라 게임 웹사이트 the agency shared on Monday.

바카라 게임 웹사이트As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory바카라 게임 웹사이트s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.바카라 게임 웹사이트

Over the weekend, the asteroid also dropped to a ranking of 0 out of 10 on the , a tool for categorizing potential collisions of space objects with Earth. The ranking indicates 바카라 게임 웹사이트the likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.바카라 게임 웹사이트

Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected by telescopes on December 27, 2024, is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, comparable to a large building, and could cause local devastation if it were to collide with our planet.

The quick de-escalation of the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s risk assessment is thanks to 바카라 게임 웹사이트unsung, meticulous work by astronomers바카라 게임 웹사이트 who conducted a steady stream of follow-up observations of the space rock using telescopes across the globe, said Richard Binzel, inventor of the Torino Scale. Binzel is a professor of planetary sciences, joint professor of aerospace engineering and MacVicar Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

바카라 게임 웹사이트I바카라 게임 웹사이트m pleasantly surprised that we could reduce the probability numbers so quickly,바카라 게임 웹사이트 Binzel said. 바카라 게임 웹사이트It would not have done anyone any good to have this probability hang around for a long time because it was going to go to zero. The reason I say it was going to go to zero is at the end of the day, the probability is either zero and it misses you, or it바카라 게임 웹사이트s one and it hits you. Any number in between is just the space of your uncertainty. We didn바카라 게임 웹사이트t want us to have to sit in that time and space of uncertainty for months and months.바카라 게임 웹사이트

From record-breaking to nonthreatening

Early last week, 2024 YR4 briefly broke a record once reached by the asteroid Apophis after it was first spotted in 2004.

At its peak threat level, 2024 YR4 reached a 3 on the Torino Scale and had an estimated 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA. The ESA바카라 게임 웹사이트s observations reached a peak of a 2.8% risk.

The narrow difference was due to the two agencies바카라 게임 웹사이트 use of different tools for determining the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s orbit and modeling its potential impact. But both percentages rose above the 2.7% chance of collision once associated with Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be spotted within the past two decades.

However, as with Apophis, astronomers expected the risk for 2024 YR4 to spike and then fall to zero as they obtained more observational data to reduce uncertainties about the asteroid바카라 게임 웹사이트s path.

Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with a chance of hitting our planet and reaching a 4 out of 10 on the Torino Scale. The rating meant that the asteroid merited astronomers바카라 게임 웹사이트 attention and tracking. Apophis reached a 4 because it was a larger object capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 garnered a 3 because it would cause local damage, Binzel said.

But like 2024 YR4, Apophis also quickly dropped from a 4 to a 0 on the Torino Scale after astronomers spotted archival observations of the asteroid that . While Apophis is still set to make a close flyby of Earth in 2029 that will be , it poses no risk to Earth within this century.

The biggest obstacle astronomers face when trying to determine the risk posed by newly discovered asteroids is calculating the unknowns. In the case of 2024 YR4, that includes the space rock바카라 게임 웹사이트s size as well as its orbit.

Observations taken during the dark skies necessary for ground-based telescopes to track faint, small asteroids after February바카라 게임 웹사이트s full moon, which shone brightly in the night sky on February 12, helped astronomers quickly decrease the risk assessment for 2024 YR4.

have included the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the Subaru Telescope and Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, all located in the Hawaiian Islands, as well as New Mexico바카라 게임 웹사이트s Magdalena Ridge Observatory, the Gemini South Observatory in the Chilean Andes, Arizona바카라 게임 웹사이트s Lowell Discovery Telescope and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands.

바카라 게임 웹사이트The atmosphere above Maunakea tends to be very stable, and it enables telescopes to produce very sharp images, sharper than most other observatory locations,바카라 게임 웹사이트 said David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii바카라 게임 웹사이트s Institute for Astronomy, in a statement.

The likelihood of 2024 YR4바카라 게임 웹사이트s impact has dropped just in time. Astronomers were concerned because the space rock바카라 게임 웹사이트s trajectory, carrying it away from Earth in a straight line, meant the asteroid would be out of reach of ground-based telescopes in April and wouldn바카라 게임 웹사이트t reappear until June 2028.

However, astronomers plan to remain vigilant in observing the space rock to ensure that 2024 YR4 poses no risk, and the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to in early March to pin down more details about its orbit and exact size.